Curse

isildorbiafra · Jan 07, 2009, 08:24 AM // 08:24

This was ANets way of enshuring many ppl stayed on line during the holliday event; and lots did in the hope they would land one. Lets be honest the turnup would have been alot lower without this MPB craze.

The amount of confirmed drops is low. Whats really surprising however is the ratio of drops to runs. This makes me believe that drops ocurred at set times and a roll of the dice had nothing to do with it.

Gratz to the ones who got lucky.

Mod please close this tread. There is no use for it anymore.

Aussie Boy · Jan 07, 2009, 08:43 AM // 08:43

Actualy one thing that isn't mentioned that maybe a factor as well?
was what server America/Europe/Asia they were droped in.
I was playing on the Europe server for the record when I got mine.

removed · Jan 07, 2009, 09:08 AM // 09:08

Wow. Some people need to remember GW is just a game.

Buzzer · Jan 07, 2009, 10:06 AM // 10:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Death Heavens

I cant believe I have to put with this crap again

So don't put up with it. Stop grinding.

Quote:

What exactly is the purpose of keeping this mini so rare anyways???

MMOs without rare items don't keep people interested.

Lystra · Jan 08, 2009, 03:16 PM // 15:16

Updated Thread Data in first post with the following:

Collected Statistics
Confirmed Bears(Screenshot) 12
Confirmed Bears(No Screeny) 3
Overall Runs(in this Thread) 29401

Data included up to post#286. If you need update your run count or post screenshot, please do so in a new reply. I have the data organized per user and can simply update it on my end but unless it is post#286 or later, the information will not be included in my spreadsheet.

Note I've excluded dubvious second hand reports or runs and and MPB drop's. Also, people who estimated their run count with a range, the low end value was used.

Simple math(runs/bears-screenshots)=1:2441 ratio. While I am not saying this is the actual drop rate, it certainly is believable at least as a low end possibility. Personally, I've suspected the drop rate to be in the 1:2000-1:3000 area and this for me confirms my suspicions. It certainly eliminated the 1:100,000 and greater speculations I've read in multiple threads prior to starting this thread.

Again, I thank everyone who contributed to this thread and hope this information can be put to good use. If you posted you MPB drop without a screeny, please update your post with a screeny and PM me to let me know so that I can update the information.

rap13oy · Jan 08, 2009, 03:37 PM // 15:37

I still don't think they exist and the moon landing was fake.

goodrix · Jan 08, 2009, 03:38 PM // 15:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lystra

Updated Thread Data in first post with the following:

Simple math(runs/bears-screenshots)=1:2441 ratio .

In other words that means a ~0.04% chance of MPB every time you open the chest. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

Donnerjack · Jan 09, 2009, 01:20 AM // 01:20

1 Miniature Polar Bear

1) 4 runs
2) Strength of Snow ( Only way to get it

3) 2008
4) Not dedicated (so far). Might sell if/after I dedicate it.

Donnerjack · Jan 09, 2009, 01:21 AM // 01:21

Someone landed on the moon?

Pariah · Jan 09, 2009, 06:21 AM // 06:21

854 runs = no bear for me

I did end up with a completely full inventory of sweet, party, and drunkard crap though so it ain't all bad.

**cosyfiep** · Jan 09, 2009, 06:26 AM // 06:26

just for the statistical purpose----21 runs, no bear (was only doing them in between the other quests so I ran out of time to just do runs)....

tmakinen · Jan 09, 2009, 06:51 AM // 06:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lystra

Personally, I've suspected the drop rate to be in the 1:2000-1:3000 area and this for me confirms my suspicions.

Since the chest was opened about 1.5 million times during the event (this based on an easily observable unbiased quantity), your estimate would indicate that a total of 500-750 MPBs dropped which doesn't seem plausible to me. The numbers in this thread have an unknown selective bias that you are not acknowledging in any way which for me makes the result completely useless.

rexalex · Jan 09, 2009, 09:08 AM // 09:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzzer

So don't put up with it. Stop grinding.

MMOs without rare items don't keep people interested.

MMOs without FUN don't keep people intrested.....

Horace Slughorn · Jan 09, 2009, 04:40 PM // 16:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by tmakinen

Since the chest was opened about 1.5 million times during the event (this based on an easily observable unbiased quantity), your estimate would indicate that a total of 500-750 MPBs dropped which doesn't seem plausible to me. The numbers in this thread have an unknown selective bias that you are not acknowledging in any way which for me makes the result completely useless.

Ty Mr. Science, tell us more pls!

Anyways, thanks for starting and updating the thread Lystra, but lets get back to UW shall we.

Final count: about 250 runs (a stack of pies) and 1 sexy bear